← GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.9% | 12 | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 33.1% | -7.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 12 | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 46.9% | -1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -3.2 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.5% | -2.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 76.2% | +16.8 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.5% | -7.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.6% | -1.0 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.0% | +5.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.0% | -18.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.2% | -17.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravenous Pyre | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |